复杂自创生经济系统的涌现分析.pdfVIP

th Proceedings of the 25 Chinese Control Conference 7-11 August, 2006, Harbin, Heilongjiang 复杂自创生经济系统的涌现分析 樑 董 ，于涵伟，何伟华 北京交通大学理学院, 北京 100044 E-mail: dlbjtu@126.com 摘 要: 本文将复杂适应系统建模理论和计算机仿真方法应用到经济学研究中，提出一种基于统一集的自创生经 济系统，其关键模型为人工涌现模型，关键技术是All Set建模、Autopoiesis方法、涌现结果分析。为了具体分析 涌现我们主要采用非线性时间序列分析来分析探讨供求关系的涌现、涌现股票市场的涌现、价格规律等动态演 化规律，从而在复杂适应系统条件下提供一种对经济系统决策与控制的思考方法。 关键词: 复杂适应系统, 自创生理论,智能体,统一集,人工涌现 Complex Autopoietic System and its Emergence Liang Dong, Hanwei Yu, Weihua He School of Science, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing, 100044 E-mail: dlbjtu@126.com Abstract: In this paper we apply the modeling theory of complex adaptive system and the computer simulating methods in the economical researches, and we put forward an autopoietic economic system based on the All Set theory, whose key model is Artificial Model and key technology is All Set modeling, autopoietic method and the analysis of the emergence. In order to anslyse the emergence concretely, we use nonlinear time series proceeding the emergences result of the dynamic evolve regulation such as the relationship of supply and demand, stock market, price regulation etc. Thus we provide a kind of thinking method of decisions and controls applied in the economic systems. Key Words: Complex Adaptive System(CAS), Autopoiesis, Agent, All Set, Artificial Emergence 实现对于人工涌现的调整以达到正涌现，从而给决 策者以指导。 1 引言(Introduction) 预决性(Finality)是复杂系统动力学重要特征之 2 复杂适应系统与统一集(CAS and All Set) 一，贝塔朗菲(L.V.Beta