中国技术减排水稻甲烷温室气体的潜力及其政策意涵.pdfVIP

2011 年 7 月 第四届全国农业环境科学学术研讨会论文集 743 中国技术减排水稻甲烷温室气体的潜力及 其政策意涵 * 黄德林 ，蔡松锋 （中国农业科学院农业经济与发展研究所，北京 100081 ） 摘 要 ：利用改进后的全球一般均衡环境模型 （GTAP-E ）及其 6 版非 CO 类温室气体排放数据库，模拟了中国水稻 2 甲烷温室气体减排的技术潜力及其政策意涵。结果显示，技术减排稻田甲烷对国家宏观经济增长的影响为正向。对 技术实施的农业部门和绝大多数农业生产部门的影响同为正向作用。对于重工业和能源及电力部门的影响较为负面， 但是对于食品加工、棉纺制品、轻工业部门的影响是正面的。对于服务业部门的影响是正面的。因此，技术减排水 稻甲烷是科学的农业环境政策。 关键词 ：技术减排稻田甲烷; 潜力; 评价 中图分类号：F062.2 文献标志码 ：A Potential and Policy Implications of Reduction Paddy Rice Methane Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Technology in China HUANG De-lin, CAI Song-feng (Institute of Agricultural Economic and Development, Chinese Academy of Agriculture Science, Beijing 100081,China) th Abstract: The improved GTAP-E model and the 6 version of non-CO greenhouse gas emissions database is used to Simulating the 2 potential power of technology reduction Chinese rice methane emission and its policy implications. The results show that the impact of reduction technology to national macro-economic growth is positive. the impact of reduction technology to agricultural sector is positive. the impact of reduction technology to heavy industry and energy and power sector are more negative, but for food processing, cotton products, light industry sector, the impact is positive. It is also to service sector. therefore, technology reduction rice methane emission is a scientific agricultural environmental policy. Keywords: technology reduction paddy rice Methane emission ； potential of emission reduction by technology ；policy implications 1 引言 1.1 农业源温室气体排放 农业源温室气体排放主要包括反刍动物甲烷排放 、水稻种植过程中的甲烷排放 、施肥造成的氧化