风险的三维评价方法.pdfVIP

19 3 V o.l 19 No. 3 2010 6 JOU RNAL OF NATU RA L DISA STER S Jun. 2010 : 1004 - 4574 ( 20 10 03- 0088- 06 1, 2 1 1 2 黄沿波 , 梁 栋 , 康雅乔, 柳红卫 ( 1. , 5 10006; 2. , 5106 10 : , , , , , , , , , , : ; ; ; : X 91311 : A Th ree dim en sional assessm en t m ethod for risk 1, 2 1 1 2 HUANG Y an-bo , L IANG Dong , KANG Y a-qiao , L IU H ong-we i ( 1. Safety Engineering R esearch C en ter, C ollege of Eng ineering, Sun Y at- sen U n ivers ity, Guangzhou 510006, C h ina; 2. Guangdong P rovin cal Inst itute of S afety S cien ce and T echnology, Guangzhou 5106 10, C h ina Abs tract: M any m e thods of risk assessm ent have been u sed to assess quant itat ive ly the risks in petrochem istry en- terprises, but these m ethods are m ainly based on wt o-d mi ensional ( 2D risk ana lysis, and can no t satisfy the re- quirem en ts of safety m anagem ent and risk assessm ent on increasing three dmi ensional ( 3D spaces. So, th is paper puts forward a assessm ent theory on 3D risk field. Th is theory u ses contour surface of 3D to research the risk distr-i bution and risk variable ra te. It is based on fie ld theory, takes the risk f ie ld as a quantity fie ld, superposes the spa- t ial d istribut ion o f indiv idual risks of d ifferent accidences and the ir gradients, and gets the spat ial distribution of in- dividual risks and their r isk variab le rate. It com pares the spatia l distribution of individual risk in 2D and 3D coor- dinate s