浙江省人口结构居民储蓄率关系研究.pdfVIP

摘 要 在国民经济生活中，居民储蓄率处于一个非常重要的地位，而人口结构对居民储蓄率 也有着深刻的影响。本文通过分析人口结构中各特征要素对居民储蓄率的影响，确定影响 机制。选取2003-2012 年的浙江省各个市的面板数据进行回归，结果表明抚养比通过个体 固定效应模型在一定程度上解释了各市之间储蓄率的差异，论证了浙江人口结构与居民储 蓄率的关系与生命周期假说的一致性。在该模型的基础上，验证并假设了抚养比、居民储 蓄率和人均消费水平之间的相互关系。得出结论：在人口红利期，生育率和少儿抚养比的 下降，要实现动态效率改进，应提高人均消费水平，应增加居民储蓄率；而在人口负债期， 随着成年劳动力人口的减少，老年抚养比的升高，要提高人均消费水平，实现动态效率改 进，应减少居民储蓄率。 关键词：浙江省； 人口结构； 居民储蓄率； 面板模型 I Abstract Savings rate plays an important role in the economics of a country, and the demographics also affects deeply about the savings rate. The routine mechanism of this article is fixed by analyzing the impact of each characteristic of demographics to savings rate. By choosing the panel data between 2003 and 2012 in each city of Zhejiang province to do regression, it shows that raising rate can explain the difference of each city ’s saving rate using entity fixed effects regression mode, and verify that the relationship between demographics and saving rate is similar to Life Cycle hypothesis. Based on this model, the effects among raising rate, saving rate and average consumption have also been verified. The result shows that, during the period of demographic dividend, birth rate and youth raising rate decrease, in order to improve dynamic efficiency, increase average consumption, we must increase saving rate; meanwhile, during the period of demographic debt, labor force decreases and old raising rate increases, in order to increase average consumption, improve dynamic efficiency, we must decrease saving rate. Key Words: Zhejiang province; demographics; savings rate; panel model II 目录 摘 要 I