CFCModelingassignment-Cloudfront.net.doc

CFC Modeling assignment Go to /~mac/physlets/GlobalPollution/CFCASS1.htm for data and interactive model. Objective: Use the NOAA/CMDL data graphs to estimate the global average concentration of CFC-12 from 1979 to 1995 and to see how the rate of increase has changed over these years. Real Data: Reading The Graph of Figure 1. Q1: What are the global average concentration of CFC-12 in 1979, 1983, 1987, 1991, and 1995? 1979: 1983: 1987: 1991: 1995: Q2: Does the concentration of CFC-12 appear to be increasing as much in 1995 as it was in 1980? Explain. Q3: Is the CFC-12 concentration in the Northern hemisphere higher or lower than in the Southern hemisphere? Why is this true? Q4: If the atmospheric life-time of CFC-12 were only a few months, instead of 100 years, would the difference between Northern and Southern hemisphere concentrations be larger or smaller than in present observations? Explain your reasoning. (hint: it takes a year or two for Northern hemisphere air to mix with Southern hemisphere air.) For the following questions you should run the Model. Objective: Compare the CFC-12 concentrations from NOAA/CMDL observations with those predicted by a global mass balance model to estimate the average emission source (S in ppt/yr) of CFC-12 into the atmosphere for different time intervals. For Q5 through Q9 click on CFC#1 to set up graph. Data from a global average CFC-12 data set have been transferred to this graph, six points space 4 years apart between 1979 and 1999. This allows you to use the model to better understand the observations. Use 100 years for atmospheric lifetime of CFC-12 for all simulations. Q5: Change the emissions (So) to get the best fit between the model and the first two data points [1979 and 1983]. What value of So gives the best fit to these two points? Use your subjective judgment to obtain the best fit as oppose to some statistical test. Best fit So: Q6: Change the emissions So and the initial concentration C0 to get th