我国海运服务贸易逆差及预警机制研究.pdf

Trade deficit of China maritime service and warning mechanism research Abstract Since11th five-year plan,Chinas service trade have developed steadily,Chinas trade in services increased from $157.1 billion in 200 to $419.1 billion in 2011,exports and imports ranked the fourth and the third in the world respectively.ButwecanalsoseethatChinasservicetradeformanyyearshasbeenin adeficitstate,andthemaritimeserviceindustry,asabasisoftradeinservicesandplay the supportingrole,isthemain sourceofdeficit.Thissituationisnot conducivetothe development of service trade in China,indicates the maritime service trade in imbalance,restricts the balance of international service trade in our country,not conducive to Chinas economic security.Against this situation,analyze Chinas maritime servicetrade deficit,discussitseconomiceffect,andbuild the earlywarning mechanism,monitoringtherelateddatachangesatanytime,thesemeasuresforcontrol the trade imbalance of Chinesemaritime industry in areasonable scope,promotethe healthy development of maritime service trade and to maintain the industrial safety,realizethe sustainableandfastdevelopment ofshippingservicetrade inChina haveveryimportantpracticalsignificance. This article analyzes the trade deficit of our maritime service trade and build early warning mechanism,through the result of the early warning to deal with maritimeservicestradedeficit.The mainframeworkofarticlecanbesummarizedas fourparts,the firstpartbriefly explainthepresent situationandinfluenceofmaritime service trade deficit,defining the relevant concepts,comprehensive domestic and foreignscholarsontradeinservices,earlywarningmechanismandtheresearchofBP neural network,etc,put forward the research content of the paper,then classifies the related theories, make the studyonthisbasis;The secondpart isthe current develop situation of maritime service trade and analyze the cause of deficit. Firstly,summarizedthepresent situationofmaritimeservicetrade,thedataofcalendar year showsthat Chinas