Chap5TimeSeriesAnalysis.pptVIP

Chap 5 Time Series Analysis Statistics in Practice The Nevada Occupational Health Clinic is a privately owned medical clinic and specializes in industrial medicine. The clinic was still undergoing dramatic growth when the main clinic building burned to the ground on April 6,1993. The clinic’s insurance policy covered physical property and equipment as well as loss of income due to the interruption of regular business operations. However, determining the value of the income lost during the seven months that it took to rebuild the clinic was a complicated matter involving negotiations between the business owners and the insurance company. No preestablished rules could help calculate “what would have happened” to the clinic’s billings if the fire had not occurred. To estimate the lost income, the clinic used a forecasting method to project the growth in business that would have been realized during the seven- month lost-business period. The actual history of billings prior to the fire provided the basis for a forecasting model with linear trend and seasonal components. This forecasting model enabled the clinic to establish an accurate estimate of the loss, which eventually was accepted by the insurance company. Chap.5 Time Series Analysis The emphases 1、the horizontal and the speed analysis of time series； 2、the secular trend analysis of time series ； 3、the season fluctuation analysis of time series 。 The difficulties 1、the calculation of average rate of development and increase ； 2、the calculation of the chronological average。 Chap.5 Time Series Analysis 5.1 The Horizontal And The Speed Analysis Of Time Series Chap.5 Time Series Analysis 5.2、Average Development （ chronological average 、static average）※ Chap.5 Time Series Analysis 5.2.2 The calculation of chronological average of absolute time series Chap.5 Time Series Analysis 、 Time Point Series .1 Equally Spaced Intervals Of Successive Time Point Series Chap