我国学生营养健康状况流行趋势研究.docVIP

我国学生营养健康状况流行趋势的研究 杨小君1，许良（400047重庆重庆师范大学体育学院）摘要目的 预测未来10年全国学生营养状况的。方法基于4次国学生体质调研营养检测指标的监测数据，运用多变量灰色预测模型方法，建立全国学生营养不良、超重和肥胖的数学预测模型及其预测值。 结果 轻度营养不良2010和2015年最大检出率，城男达4.25﹪和4.33﹪，城女达7.37﹪和6.65﹪，乡男达5.07﹪和6.29﹪，乡女达﹪和﹪；中度以上营养不良2010和2015年最大检出率，城男达0.18﹪和0.20﹪，城女达0.68﹪和0.70﹪，乡男达0.20﹪和0.23﹪，乡女0.72﹪；超重2010和2015年最大检出率，城男达22.89﹪和31.86﹪，城女达16.01﹪和20.09﹪，乡男达15.31﹪和22.42﹪，乡女达11.42﹪和14.90﹪；肥胖2010和2015年最大检出率，城男达19.85﹪和26.02﹪，城女达11.18﹪和15.49﹪，乡男达10.91﹪和18.36﹪，乡女达6.13﹪和9.55﹪。 结论 ①13～15岁和16～18岁是未来时期我国营养不良学生的重点干预群体，10～12岁是超重和肥胖学生的重点干预群体。②轻度营养不良学生群体有望下降，城市学生下降幅度较明显于农村学生；中度以上营养不良未来增降不明显，城乡差距不显著且水平基本持平；③未来时期超重、肥胖学生群体呈递增态势，城市上升幅度高于农村，男生高于女生，肥胖成为未来时期威胁我国学生健康的重大营养问题，应引起全社会的高度重视与关注。 ’ nutrition and healthy in China Yang Xiao-jun 1, Xu Liang 1, Wang Feng-xiao2 1Physical Education College of Chongqing Normal University, Chongqing 400047;2Mathematics Department of Shannxi University of Technology, Hanzhong 723000 [Abstract] Objective To predict epidemicity of students’ nutrition and healthy in China in next decade.Methods Based on data of related nutrient index of 4 times national students’ constitution investigation and research reports and applied multivariate grey predictive model to construct mathematic predictive model and indexes of malnutrition, overweight and obesity. Results The maximum exam ration of mild malnutrition in the duration of 2010-2015, urban males will be 4.25% and 4.33%, urban females will be 7.37% and 6.65%, suburban males will be 5.07% and 6.29%, suburban females will be 7.37% and 7.88%. The maximum exam ration of moderate malnutrition in the duration of 2010-2015, urban males will be 0.18% and 0.20%, urban females will be 0.68% and 0.70%, suburban males will be 0.20% and 0.23%, suburban females all will be 0.72% . The maximum exam ration of overweight in the duration of 2010-2015, urban males will be 22.89% and 31.86%, urban females will be 16.01% and 20.09%, suburban males will be 15.31% and 22.42%, suburban females will be 11.42% and 14.90%. The maximum exa