福岡県西方沖の余震活動での相対的静穏化とストレスシ.pptVIP

Toward urgent forecasting of aftershock hazard:Simultaneous estimation of b-value of the Gutenberg-Richter’s law of the magnitude frequency and changing detection rates of aftershocks immediately after the mainshock Yosihiko Ogata and Koichi Katsura； Institute of Statistical Mathematics * Fig. 2. Estimations of detected aftershocks of the 2003 Miyagi-Ken-Oki earthquake of M7.0. Panel a and b represent the estimated functions of b-values and ?-values for the standard deviation of partially detected magnitudes, respectively, and c and d indicate the estimated ?-values for the magnitude of 50% detection-rate. Horizontal axis of all panels is the elapsed time since the mainshock indicated in days with logarithmic scale. Grey color circles in c and d represent the magnitude data of the aftershocks against the elapsed time. Thick smooth red curve in a , b and c shows the maximum posterior estimate of b-, ?- and ?-value, respectively, which is bounded by smooth thin red curves below and above, showing 2-fold standard errors due to the posterior distribution. Thick colored horizontal segments in a and b , and thick curves in d respectively show the maximum likelihood estimates of b-values constant , ?-values constant , and the function ? t in equation 9 ; where color of dark red, purple, red, orange, blue, green and black represents the estimates obtained by fitting the observed magnitudes of all detected aftershocks during the period from the mainshock up until 30min, 1hour, 3hours, 6hours, 12hours, 24hours and 370days, respectively; time location of which are indicated by the corresponding colored vertical dotted lines. Fig. 3. Plots of frequency rate of all detected aftershocks per day circles versus elapsed time in doubly logarithmic scale, and estimated theoretical rate of all M 0 events including undetected events colored curves for the observed period from the mainshock up until the updated time 1hour, 3hours, 6hours, 12hours, and 24ho