Weather Forecasting, Earth System Modelling and HPC.pptVIP

CAS2K3, Annecy, 7-10 September 2003 Report from ECMWF  Walter Zwieflhofer European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting Topics covered Operational forecasting system Planned improvements High-performance computing system Data handling system Reanalysis activities Operational forecasting system Forecasts of the atmosphere and ocean waves to ten-days ahead Twice per day T511 (40km) 60-level deterministic model T255 (80km) 40-level ensemble prediction system All of the above are coupled to an ocean-wave model Forecasts to one month ahead Ensembles using a T159 (125km) L40 atmospheric model coupled to an ocean circulation model (110km) Currently run experimentally once per fortnight Seasonal forecasts Once per month, using a T95 (210km) L40 atmospheric model and the same ocean model used for the one-month forecasts Data assimilation Four-dimensional variational (4D-Var) analysis with 12-hour data window Inner-loop minimizations at up to T159 (125km) L60 resolution Outer-loop resolution of T511 (40km) L60 Short cut-off analyses 3D-Var with 6-hour data window 4 times per day Used to supply boundary conditions to several Member States for Limited Area Modelling ECMWF forecast verification (12UTC) Evolution of the number of products disseminated per day Total is now is 1.3 M per day Was 300k in 2000 Research directions operational targets For 2004: Assimilation of MSG data and additional ENVISAT and AIRS data Assimilation of rainfall measurements Increased vertical resolution, particularly in the vicinity of the tropopause Preparations for upgrades in horizontal resolution Target resolutions for 2005: Deterministic forecast: T799 (25km) L91 EPS: T399 (50km) L65 4D-Var (inner/outer): T255/T799 L91 Compute resources required for the above will be delivered by the IBM Phase 3 system Slide from CAS-2001: Planned changes Computer configuration (September 2003) Current HPC configuration Two IBM cluster 1600s with 30 p690 servers each Each p690 is