Financial rises and Economic中文翻译对照部分.doc

金融危机与经济活动 FINANCIAL CRISES AND ECONOMIC ACTIVITY 这是一篇为了由堪萨斯联邦储备银行赞助，在杰克逊洞，怀俄明，在2009年8月20日到22日举行的“金融稳定和宏观经济政策”研讨会而准备的的文章。我们要为了他们有用的意见而感谢研讨会的与会者，我们的讨论者Mark Gertler和 Roberto Blanco。Jimmy Shek 和Clara Garcia 提供了优秀的科研援助，Luc Laeven 和 Fabian Valencia热心地共享了他们的危机数据库。本文中所表达的观点仅代表作者本人，与国际清算银行无关。本文所表达的意见是作者（s）的观点，并不一定反映国家经济研究局的意见。 This paper was prepared for Financial Stability and Macroeconomic Policy, a symposium sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, on August 20-22,2009. We would like to thank participants at the Symposium, our discussant Mark Gertler, and Roberto Blanco.for useful comments. Jimmy Shek and Clara Garcia provided excellent research assistance, and Luc Laeven and Fabian Valencia kindly shared their database of crises. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the BIS. The views expressed herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research. 摘要（ABSTRACT） 我们从1980年开始研究40个系统性金融危机的成本输出。我们样本中的大多数危机，但不是全部，都花了几年的时间来恢复产出的急剧收缩。我们的主要结果如下。第一，当前的金融危机不同于在一个范围广泛的经济因素方面的别的危机。第二，过去的银行业危机的产出损失较高时，他们是伴随着货币危机或当生长率较低时出现的危机。伴随着主权债务违约，银行业系统性危机的成本更低。还有第三，现在有一个系统性的银行危机有持久的负输出的影响的趋势。 We study the output costs of 40 systemic banking crises since 1980. Most, but not all, crises in our sample coincide with a sharp contraction in output from which it took several years to recover. Our main findings are as follows. First, the current financial crisis is unlike any others in terms of a wide range of economic factors. Second, the output losses of past banking crises were higher when they were accompanied by a currency crisis or when growth was low at the onset of the crisis. When accompanied by a sovereign debt default, a systemic banking crisis was less costly. And, third, there is a tendency for systemic banking crises to have lasting negative output effects. 简介（Introduction） 八月2009年代表着二十一世纪首个全球金融危机开始的第二年。全球产量自20世纪30年代的大萧条以来经历了急剧下降，多数亚洲经济在20