风险评价数学3 AHP1.ppt

Logistics Decision Analysis Methods Analytic Hierarchy Process TIAN Hong The Institute of Aeronautical Eng. Tianhongde@ Thomas L. Saaty UNIVERSITY CHAIR, QUANTITATIVE GROUP Office: 322 Mervis Hall Phone: 412-648-1539E-mail: saaty@ DegreesPhD in Mathematics, Yale University (1953) Postgraduate Study, University of Paris (1952–53)  Prior to coming to the University of Pittsburgh, Thomas L. Saaty was professor at the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania for 10 years and before that was for seven years in the Arms Control and Disarmament Agency at the U.S. State Department. He is a member of the National Academy of Engineering. He is the architect of the decision theory, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and its generalization to decisions with dependence and feedback, the Analytic Network Process (ANP). He has published numerous articles and more than 12 books on these subjects. His nontechnical book on the AHP, Decision Making for Leaders, has been translated to more than 10 languages. His book, The Brain: Unraveling the Mystery of How It Works, generalizing the ANP further to neural firing and synthesis, appeared in the year 2000. He is currently involved in extending his mathematical multicriteria decision-making theory to how to synthesize group and societal influences. He is also developing the Super Decisions software that implements the ANP and it is available free at /. The AHP is used in both individual and group decision-making by business, industry, and governments and is particularly applicable to complex large-scale multiparty multicriteria decision problems The ANP has been applied to a variety of decisions involving benefits, costs, opportunities, and risks and is particularly useful in predicting outcomes. At the Katz School he teaches Decision Making in Complex Environments, using both the AHP and the ANP and Creativity and Problem Solving. He has recently completed a book on the subject of creativi