Categorical Climate Forecasts through Optimal Combination of通过优化组合分类气候预测.ppt

Consolidation of Predictions of Seasonal Climate by Several Atmospheric General Circulation Models at IRI Anthony Barnston, Lisa Goddard, Simon Mason and Andrew Robertson International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) Probabilities and Uncertainty Bayesian Model Combination Circumventing the effects of sampling variability Sampling variability appears to be an issue: noisy weight distribution with large number of zero weights and some unity weights Bootstrap the optimization, omitting contiguous 6-year blocks of the 48-yr time series yields 43 samples of 42 years shows the sampling variability of the likelihood over subsets of years We average the weights across the samples Example Six GCMs’ Jul-Aug-Sep precipitation simulations Training period: 1950–97 Ensembles of between 9 and 24 members RPSS Precip. Conclusions - Bayesian The “climatological” (equal-odds) forecast provides a useful prior for combining multiple ensemble forecasts Sampling problems become severe when attempting to combine many models from a short training period (“noisy weights”) A two-stage process combines the models together according to a pre-assessment of each against climatology Smoothing of the weights across data sub-samples and spatially appears beneficial 30 12 30 24 12 24 24 24 10 FORECAST SST TROP. PACIFIC: THREE scenarios (multi-models, dynamical and statistical) TROP. ATL, INDIAN (ONE statistical) EXTRATROPICAL (damped persistence) GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC MODELS ECPC(Scripps) ECHAM4.5(MPI) CCM3.6(NCAR) NCEP(MRF9) NSIPP(NASA) COLA2 GFDL Forecast SST Ensembles 3/6 Mo. lead Persisted SST Ensembles 3 Mo. lead IRI DYNAMICAL CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM POST PROCESSING MULTIMODEL ENSEMBLING -Bayesian -Caninical variate PERSISTED GLOBAL SST ANOMALY 2-tiered OCEAN ATMOSPHERE 30 FORE