College of Business商业学院.pptVIP

Planning Manager Communications Organizing Coordination Goals Decision Making Leading Adaptation Controlling linking management desired processes functions conditions Management Process Model Rational Model (Classical) Models of Decision Making Complete information about alternatives Complete information about consequences of each alternative Objective analysis of facts Goal: maximize, minimize, optimize Limited cognitive capacity and time Emotions/intuition Framing Information Processing Biases all of the perceptual biases Decision Context Biases escalation of commitment groupthink org. impediments Factors that affect our ability to make rational decisions Nonrational Models Administrative Model Bounded Rationality Incremental Model Intuition Political Model Models of Decision Making: continued Limited available information Limited search for additional information Limited cognitive capacity “Satisficing” solutions Bounded Rationality Programmed Decisions Nonprogrammed decisions Types of Decisions Decision making under certainty Decision making under risk Decision making under uncertainty Decision Making Environments Decision Making Techniques Depends on how much, and the quality of, information available; which is a function of The environment in which decision making is to take place The ability to forecast that environment Forecasting Techniques Forecasting the external environment Economic forces Technological forces Sociocultural forces Governmental forces Forecasting the internal environment Sales forecasting Sales Forecasting Techniques Forecasts based on what people say they will do. Jury of Executive Opinion Salesforce Composite User Expectation Forecasts based on what people are doing. Test marketing Forecasts based on what people have done in the past. Time Series Analysis Correlation analysis Econometric Models Decisio