超越极限-执行摘要（ beyondthe limits- executive summary）.docVIP

Beyond the Limits-Executive Summary  Confronting Global Collapse, Envisioning a Sustainable Futureby Donella H. Meadows, Dennis L. Meadows, and Jorgen Randers Twenty years ago, after working with global data and with a computer model called World3, we came to the following conclusions in a book called The Limits to Growth: If present growth trends in world population, industrialization, pollution, food production, and resource depletion continue unchanged, the limits to growth on this planet will be reached sometime within the next hundred years. The most probable result will be a sudden and uncontrollable decline in both population and industrial capacity. It is possible to alter these growth trends and to establish a condition of ecological and economic stability that is sustainable far into the future. The state of global equilibrium could be designed so that the basic material needs of each person on earth are satisfied and each person has an equal opportunity to realize his or her individual human potential. If the worlds people decide to strive for this second outcome rather than the first, the sooner they begin working to attain it, the greater will be their chances of success. Now with an updated model, with more extensive data, and after twenty years of growth and change in the world, we believe that our original conclusions are still valid, but they need to be strengthened: Human use of many essential resources and generation of many kinds of pollutants have already surpassed rates that are physically sustainable. Without significant reductions in material and energy flows, there will be in the coming decades an uncontrolled decline in per capita food output, energy use, and industrial production. This decline is not inevitable. To avoid it two changes are necessary. The first is a comprehensive revision of policies and practices that perpetuate growth in material consumption and in population. The second is a rapid, drastic increase in the effic