HurricaneModelTransitionstoOperationsatNCEPEMC.ppt

Hurricane Model Transitions to Operations at NCEP/EMC 2009 IHC Conference, St. Petersburg, FL Robert Tuleya*, V. Tallapragada,Y. Kwon, Q. Liu, Zhan Zhang, Yihua Wu ,J. O’Connor and N. Surgi HWRF – GFDL HWRF 2008 Skill Hourly intensity Season statistics not affected Sfc Temperatures Problems in HWRF remaining b.c. noise?? Fay 082018Impact of Tsfc fix: (improved track, more intense) Gustav 083100Impact of Tsfc fix: (improved track, same intensity) Other potential improvements Surface flux formulations Land surface modeling Gravity wave drag High resolution Reduced Surface Drag High Resolution HWRF Experiment Resolution - Control: 0.18, 0.06 (~27km, ~9km) - High Res: 0.09, 0.03 Domain - Control: 216x432, 60x100 - High Res: 432x862, 118x198 Time Step - Control: 54, 18 (sec) - High Res: 27, 9 (sec) Ocean Coupling - Coupled with HYCOM (resolution remains the same) - Coupling time: every 9 minutes Case Study - Hurricane RITA, starting from 2005092012 HWRF Accomplishments HWRF severely test in the active Atlantic Season. HWRF ran in a robust, timely fashion . HWRF competitive with best operational guidance. HWRF installed GWD and fixed sfc temperature issues HWRF working on LSM, sfc parameterizations, and higher resolution. The NMM-WRF Modeling System/wrf-nmm/users/ Regional-Scale, Moving Nest, Atmospheric Modeling System. Non-Hydrostatic system of equations formulated on a rotated latitude-longitude, Arakawa E-grid and a vertical, pressure hybrid (sigma_p-P) coordinate. Advanced HWRF,3D Variational analysis that includes vortex reallocation and adjustment to actual storm intensity. Uses SAS convection scheme, GFS/GFDL surface, boundary layer physics, GFDL/GFS radiation and Ferrier Microphysical Scheme. Ocean coupled modeling system (POM GFDL). Technical Details of Operational HWRF POM Coupled System run by NCEP Central Operations Sporadic SLP noise Sea level pressure diagnostic Mod