全国列车传媒价值评估抽样方案设计.docxVIP

全国列车传媒价值评估抽样方案设计央视市场研究公司 袁琳/苏本才??[摘要] ：随着科技的发展，新媒体正以锐不可当之势深深地融入我们的生活，并给传媒业带来巨大而深刻的变革。列车视频作为一种声画结合的新媒体形式，依托全国交通大动脉在枯燥的旅程中为旅客实时传递着信息和资讯。为度量这一新生媒体的传播价值，准确反映受众总体收视水平与态度，本文基于聚类分析方法，利用其与分层抽样的核心思想同为层（类）内差异性小而层（类）间差异性大的原理，在调查前期的抽样工作中对无明确分类变量、辅助信息交纵的线路资源进行分层，实现了一阶段抽样中对于独立观察团的划分；并进一步采用PPS抽样方法抽取被访者，做到了在样本中较完整的保留总体信息。从设计效应和抽样误差来看，应用聚类分析解决分层抽样问题适合列车视频观众这一复杂总体的实际情况，并在方法上为其他项目解决类似问题提供了参考。??[关键字] ： 列车视频媒体观众 聚类分析 分层抽样 设计效应 ??[Abstract]: With the development of technology, the penetration of new media into our lives shows an unstoppable trend, which brings enormous and profound changes to the media industry. Train video, a new media form that integrates sound and picture relying on the giant national transportation system, delivers live messages and information to passengers and brightens their boring journey. ?To measure the value of new media, and also to reflect the overall audience behavior and attitude, this paper has employed cluster analysis method, an approach that can minimize difference within the same cluster while maximize difference between different clusters, to classify the respondents. To avoid bias, we have used transportation line data without pre-classification and therefore enabled independent division to the respondents in the first phase; based on the result of first phase, we have applied PPS sampling method to select respondents for the second phase, which made the sample representative for the population.?It’s proven by the research effect and sampling error that cluster analysis is the right way for multi-layer sampling among train video audience. ?[Keywords]: Audience of train video; Cluster Analysis; Stratified sampling; Design Effect ???一、引言?入世以来市场竞争日趋激烈，越来越多的企业在经营实践中认识到市场调查在企业存续、投资优选、战略规划、品牌建设等方面发挥的重要指导作用，应用市场调研工具为生产经营服务的管理理念日渐成熟。对于市场调研机构而言，抽样调查具有成本低、时效性强、准确度高的特点，是迅速响应客户需求、准确采集原始数据的重要手段之一。因而优选调查方法和控制抽样精度就成为市场调研前期工作的核心。科学的抽样方案不仅赋予数据真实还原总体的能力，而且决定了企业应用调研结果服务经营决策的成效。因此，探讨复杂样本抽样方案设计具有重要理论意义和实际意义。?抽样方案设计的重点在于描述样本如何抽取。数据采集方法多种多样，如入户面访、电话调查、在线调查等等；样本抽取方法众多，如简单随