蒙特卡罗模拟风险分析excel投资决策(可编辑).docxVIP

摘 要随着经济全球化的不断发展，我国的投资行业也进入蓬勃发展的时代，在投资决策分析过程中，风险分析必不可少。传统的投资决策分析方法在现实中存在很多的局限，手工计算耗时耗力，且大型分析软件需要大量费用。本文利用大众软件excel在折现现金流量模型中采用蒙特卡罗模拟方法对那些高风险或发展前景存在不确定性因素的公司进行决策，充分考虑各变量取值的随机性, 通过随机模拟技术, 结合实际项目进行模拟分析，在考察投资决策变量概率分布规律的基础上, 给出了投资项目净现值可能取值的范围和不小于某一特定值的概率,对目标变量投资项目净现值的取值情况进行大量随机试验, 获取相关风险分析的统计信息, 为投资决策提供更为科学的决策依据。运用 Excel 所提供的数学、财务及其他函数, 以及分析工具和图表功能, 更好地解决投资决策过程中风险分析问题。采用蒙特卡罗模拟法结合计算机编程语言,可以快速得到结果,只要适当把握好试验次数,就可以提高其精确度,是项目风险分析的一种有效工具。该技术依靠随机抽样来预测项目未来盈利情况,主要考察项目的净现值,内部收益率等指标,让投资者根据结果进行权衡,能有效地预测风险的存在及风险发生的概率。AbstractWith the continuous development of economic globalization, Chinas investment industry into the era of booming, also in the process of investment decision analysis, risk analysis is necessary. Traditional investment decision analysis method in reality there are a lot of limitations, time-consuming manual calculation, and the large analysis software requires a lot of cost. In this paper, using mass software excel in discounted cash flow model using monte carlo simulation method for those high risk or future uncertainty factors of company to make decisions, fully considering the randomness of each state variable through the stochastic simulation technology, simulated analysis, combined with actual project in examining investment decision variable, on the basis of probability distribution, gives the range of possible value of the net present value of investment projects and not less than one.Provided by use of Excel of mathematics, finance and other functions, as well as the analysis tool and function of the chart, to better solve the problem of risk analysis of investment decision-making process. Using monte carlo simulation method in combination with computer programming language, can quickly get the results, as long as appropriate grasp good experiments, can improve the accuracy, is an effective tool of project risk analysis. The technology by random sampling predict project future earnings, the main project of the net present value, internal rate of return and oth