马尔科夫预测模型在人力资源供给预测中的应用.docxVIP

内容摘要人力资源是企业生存和发展的必要条件，是一种特殊的资源，它对企业生存发展有决定性影响。人力资源预测是人力资源规划的重要内容。能否根据人才的流动情况为其配置合理岗位，真正达到人岗匹配的目的，关键在于运用合理有效的方法对企业人力资源供给进行预测，及时合理引进人才。本文将介绍一种人力资源预测的科学预测方法---马尔科夫模型预测法。马尔科夫预测方法既可以用于人力资源供给预测也可以用于人力资源需求预测，运用马尔科夫模型可以通过历史数据来预测未来数据。该模型不仅可以预测企业中各类职位人员的供给人数，还可以预测企业中各类人员的分布，对于企业如何用人和用好人有一定的指导意义和应用价值。本文将就该预测技术在人力资源供给中的应用进行论述：首先介绍人力资源预供给预测的重要性，其次重点介绍马尔科夫模型预测法的概念原理及转移矩阵的建立，再次结合案例指出这一方法在企业人力资源预测中的应用，最后简单探讨马尔科夫模型在人力资源预测上的局限。关键词：人力资源；供给；预测；马尔科夫；转移概率AbstractHuman resource is a necessary condition for enterprise survival and development, it is a special resource. Human resource has a decisive influence to the enterprise’s survival and development.Theforecast for Human resource is an important content ofHuman resource planning. How can a company according to the talent’s flow todistribute all kinds of jobs, itdepends using the effective methods to forecast the human resource supply, and introducing the reasonable talent timely. This article introduces a kind of scientific prediction method for human resources - Markov model. Markov model can be used for both human resources supply forecasting and human resource demand forecasting, using the Markov model can through the historical data to predict future data. It can not only predict the number of supply, but alsocan predict the distribution of all kinds of staffs in the organization, this will be helpful for the enterprise to choose and employ persons and has certain guiding significance. This article will discuss the prediction technology in the application for the human resource supply: at the first, I will introduce the importance of human resources supply forecasting, and then this paper mainly introduces the concept of the principle of the Markov model prediction method and the establishment of the transfer matrix, finally the article will combine a concrete example to point out this method in the application of the enterprise human resource forecast. key words：Human resource；supply；forecast；Markov model ；transfer matrix目录一、绪论………