ppt课件-phillipscurve-uits-universityofconnecticut.pptVIP

Copyright ? Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved. Phillips Curve Macroeconomics Cunningham Original Phillips Curve A. W. Phillips (1958), “The Relation Between Unemployment and the Rate of Change of Money Wage Rates in the United Kingdom, 1861-1957”, Economica. Wage inflation vs. Unemployment New Zealander at London School of Economics Missing Equation of Keynesian economics? Phillips’ Conclusions There exists a stable relationship between the variables. The relationship has not substantially changed for over 100 years. Negative, nonlinear correlation. Wages remain stable/stationary( =0) when unemployment is 5?%. Conclusions, Continued From the dispersion of the data points, Phillips concluded that there was a countercyclical “loop”: Money wages rise faster as du/dt decreases, Money wages fall slower as du/dt increases Implies an inflationary bias, and is consistent with sticky wage theory. Problems with Phillips’ Study Empirical method suspect. Is this an empirical result in search of a theory? To tie to theory, need a way to relate this to real wages in order to connect this to labor market conditions. R.G. Lipsey (1960) attempts to address these points in “The Relationship Between Unemployment and the Rate of Change of Money Wage Rates in the UK, 1862-1957: A Further Analysis”. Lipsey’s Phillips Curve Lipsey, Continued Lipsey, ContinuedIndividual Labor Market Conditions Lipsey, Continued The result is a Phillips curve for an individual market. Next, aggregate across markets for the aggregate Phillips curve. Samuelson-Solow (1960) Popularized the curve. Made relevant to policymakers. Relation is general price level inflation vs. unemployment. Recommended to policymakers as a trade-off. Samuelson-Solow, Continued Key transformation from Phillips-Lipsey to S-S is through mark-up pricing. Firms set prices by adding a fixed mark-up to labor costs. The mark-up = the industry-wide profit margin + depreciation of fixed K Samuelson