TheGlobalEnergyLandscape.pptVIP

The Global Energy Landscape The Problem of Energy Diminishing supply? Resources in unfriendly locations? Environmental damage? The Solution Adequate domestic supply Environmentally benign Conveniently transported Conveniently used World Energy Consumption World Energy Consumption Fossil Fuel Supplies Reserves History for American Coal US Energy Imports/Exports: 1949-2004 Environmental Outlook Anthropogenic Fossil fuel (75%) Land use (25%) Environmental Outlook Future Scenarios Future Scenarios Energy Outlook Supply Uncertainty in assessing High geopolitical risk Rising costs Environmental Impact Target, by 2050 Stabilize CO2 at 550 ppm Requires 20 TW carbon-free power One 1-GW power plant daily from now until then The Energy Solution A Sustainable Energy Cycle A Sustainable Energy Cycle Towards a Sustainable Energy Future 2005 totals: 490 Q-Btu, 515 EJ, 16TW 2030 projections: 720 Q-Btu, 760 EJ, 24TW 86% fossil 81% Source: US Energy Information Administration 260,000,000,000 60W bulbs continuously Source: US Energy Information Agency (annual) 264 211 158 106 52 0 Exa Joules (1018) 8.4 6.7 5.0 3.3 1.7 0 Equivalent Power (TW, 1012) How good is the EIA at making projections?? Coal, actual Rsv = Reserves (90%) Rsc = Resources (50%) 300 270 32 Coal 18 - 65 7 – 40 11 - 25 Gas 23 - 55 10 – 35 13 - 20 Oil Total, yrs Resources, yrs Reserves, yrs Source ? 400 yrs 56-77 287-345 Source: US Energy Information Administration Coal Commission (based on surveys by Marius Campbell of the USGS) 4,045 years Paul Averitt (USGS) 2,136 years 1,433 years Bureau of Mines/EIA (based on Paul Averitt’s surveys) 368 years 270 years 236 years Courtesy: David Rutledge “Hubbert Peak” type of analysis suggests 90% depletion by 2076 1957: Net Importer 65% of known petroleum reserves in Middle East 3% of reserves in USA, but 25% of world consumption Total Coal Petroleum Total Petroleum Net Imports Exports Source: US Energy Informati