EIARenewableEnergyProjectionsinAlternativeScenario.pptVIP

Edit Footer Presentation Name: March 28, 2007 EIA Renewable Energy Projections in Alternative Scenarios EIA Energy Outlook, Modeling and Data Conference March 28, 2007 Washington, DC Robert K. Smith, OIAF Annual Energy Outlook AEO contains mid-term projections of U.S. energy markets AEO2006 and AEO2007 project through 2030 Reference Case represents current laws and regulations Contain over 30 sensitivity cases with varying technology and market assumptions Reference Case is also used as a baseline to analyze the potential impacts of proposed laws and regulations at the request of Congress See /oiaf/aeo/index.html National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Used to develop AEO and policy analysis scenarios Integrated U.S. energy sector model with macro-economic feedback Captures market feedback among different sectors (such as natural gas price response to increased share of renewable generation) Electricity sector modeled at a 13 region level based on NERC sub-regions Updated annually Key assumptions continuously revisited New modeling techniques added to improve representation Adaptable to represent new policies or policy detail variations (for example, several different approaches to RPS structures) Alternative Cases Impacting Renewables using AEO2006 Assumptions Renewable Capacity(Gigawatts) Power Sector CO2 Emissions(million metric tons) Average End Use Electricity Prices(2005 cents per kilowatthour) Nuclear Capacity(gigawatts) Natural Gas Wellhead Prices(2005 dollars per thousand cubic feet) AEO2007 Renewable Technology Modifications and Alternate Cases Wind performance assumptions changed to better reflect recent performance Geothermal costs and resource potential updated from recent studies. Renewable Capacity(gigawatts) Summary Portfolio standards, extended tax credits and GHG cap-and-trade program cases examined by EIA all stimulated increased renewable capacity additions and generation. All cases also showed reduced GHG emissions, but the impact