ppt课件-breedinginnsippglobalcoupledmodelanditsimplicationon.pptVIP

Student seminar Breeding with the NSIPP global coupled model: applications to ENSO prediction and data assimilation Shu-Chih Yang Advisors: Profs. Eugenia Kalnay and Ming Cai Outline Introduction Objectives NASA/NSIPP CGCM Breeding method Results from a 10-year perfect model experiment Comparison with breeding in NCEP CGCM Summary NSIPP operational system: preliminary results Introduction ENSO simulation Because the coupled nature of ENSO phenomenon, the key factor to simulate and predict ENSO lies in the correct depiction of SST. ENSO prediction skill The prediction skill of a coupled model can be significantly improved through more refined initialization procedures (ex: Chen et al.,1995 and Rosati et al, 1997) Initialization of operational ensemble forecast for CGCMs Two-tier (Bengtsson et al., 1993) An ensemble of atmospheric forecast generated by a forecasted SST One-tier (Stockdale et al., 1998, adopted in ECMWF) Generate all the ensemble members via CGCM Initial perturbations are introduced in atmosphere components only How to construct effective ensemble members? 2 methods have been considered to construct initial perturbations: Singular vectors have been used for ENSO prediction with the Cane and Zebiak model Limitations Strong dependence on the choice of norm and optimization time High computational cost makes it impractical for CGCMs Breeding method Toth and Kalnay (1996) Cai et al. (2002) with CZ model Bred vectors are sensitive to the background ENSO, showing that the growth rate is weakest at the peak time of the ENSO states and strongest between the events. Bred vectors can be applied to improve the forecast skill and reduce the impact of the “spring-barrier”. The results show the potential impact for ensemble forecast and data assimilation Objectives of this research Implement the breeding method with the NASA/NSIPP CGCM Construct effective perturbations for initial conditions of ENSO ensemble forecasts Test methods first with a “perf