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GOPB Long Term Projections:An Overview of the UPED Process Prepared for: Wasatch Front Regional Council Socioeconomic Projections Working Group February 23, 2000 Contact Information Pam Perlich (801) 538-1537 pperlich@gov.state.ut.us Ross Reeve (801) 538-1545 rreeeve@gov.state.ut.us Web Site: www.qget.state.ut.us/projections Today’s Presentation Relations between major planning models UPED is regional WFRC sub-regional feedback / constraints / allocation to UCAPE Overview the UPED model Assumptions driving the regional results Economic Growth Projections Employment growth is the driver of the long run population path in the UPED model. These employment projections combine “top down” and “bottom up” methods. Long Term Employment Growth Net in-migration contributed 17% of population increase from 1948 - 1998. Long term employment growth is sufficient to generate the same relative component contributions for 1999 - 2050. Short Term Employment Growth State level major industry employment for 1999 through 2004 is controlled to the results of the state’s short term models. The results of the GOPB Olympic impact study are included. Employment Projections Firm and industry specific assumptions have been produced by analysts at Workforce Information, DWS Associations of Government Metropolitan Planning Organizations Department of Natural Resources Governor’s Office of Planning and Budget Industry Assumptions Coal mining, oil and gas extraction, and petroleum and coal manufacturing are produced by analysts in Department of Natural Resources. Construction has been modeled separately and converges to its historical mean share of employment in each region. Some industries are not treated as special cases. The employment in these is generated by the model by maintaining relative differences with the national projection series. Firms with Specific Assumptions:Wasatch Front Region Industries with Specific Assumptions Olympic Employment Impacts Total State Em