performanceofthe climate forecast systemat n c e p（performanceofthe气候预测systemat n c e p）.docVIP

The NCEP Climate Forecast System S. Saha*, S. Nadiga*, C. Thiaw*, J. Wang*, W. Wang**, Q. Zhang**, H. M. van den Dool**, H.-L. Pan*, S. Moorthi*, D. Behringer*, D. Stokes*, G. White*, S. Lord*, W. Ebisuzaki**, P. Peng**, P. Xie** Submitted to the J. Climate *Environmental Modeling Center National Centers for Environmental Prediction NWS/NOAA/DOC, Washington, D. C. **Climate Prediction Center National Centers for Environmental Prediction NWS/NOAA/DOC, Washington, D. C. Corresponding author address : Dr. Suranjana Saha, Environmental Modeling Center, 5200 Auth Road, Camp Springs, MD 20746. E-mail : Suranjana.Saha@ Abstract The Climate Forecast System (CFS), the fully coupled ocean-land-atmosphere dynamical seasonal prediction system that became operational at NCEP in August 2004, is described and evaluated in this paper. The CFS provides important advances in operational seasonal prediction on a number of fronts. For the first time in the history of U.S. operational seasonal prediction, a dynamical modeling system has demonstrated a level of skill in forecasting U.S. surface temperature and precipitation that is comparable to the skill of the statistical methods used by the NCEP Climate Prediction Center (CPC). This represents a significant improvement over the previous dynamical modeling system used at NCEP. Furthermore, the skill provided by the CFS spatially and temporally complements the skill provided by the statistical tools. The availability of a dynamical modeling tool with demonstrated skill should result in overall improvement in the operational seasonal forecast products produced by CPC. The atmospheric component of the CFS is a lower resolution version of the Global Forecast System (GFS) that was the operational global weather prediction model at NCEP during 2003. The ocean component is the GFDL Modular Ocean Model version 3 (MOM3). The previous dynamical seasonal forecast system used at NCEP consisted o