棉花市场热点问题分析mr.jiguangpo,zhengzhoucommodity.ppt

棉花市场热点问题分析 Mr.Ji guangpo, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange 福田区疾病预防控制中心 范苏云 Main topics of cotton futures Main topics of physical market Key issues of cotton industry 一、棉花期货市场热点分析 1. Cotton futures trading 1). 2013 trading volume totals 7.45 mil and turnover amounts to 0.74 trillion yuan, down 64.57% and 64.64% from 2012 respectively. Volume averaged 31300 on a daily basis, down from 86600 recorded in 2012 and 569900 in 2011. Open interest in the past three years: 2011—252700 2012—203500 2013—71400 Cotton futures trading in the first quarter of 2014 monthly trading volume as of March 26 versus 2013 2)Analysis of open interest and warehouse receipt As of March 26, open interest totals 88100 contracts, 22900 in 1405, 19700 in 1409, 9200 in 1411 and 36300 in 1501. Warehouse receipt totals 110, or 4400 tons. New reports: 46, or 1840 tons. 2. Main topics of physical market 1) Policy A. Direct payment B. Auction 2) Supply and demand A. The impact of cotton stock B. The impact of demand 3) Price A. Domestic cotton prices tend to be streamlined by auction price before new crop is available. Reserve purchase price, auction price, cash price, import price, 1% duty import price, sliding-scale duty import price, futures price 2. Policy will continue affect price during cotton harvest 1) Timing of reserve selling 2) Quota supply 3) Tolerance to accept price decline by the government 4) Supply/demand situation (crop loss, mill demand, etc) 3.Main issues of cotton industry 1. RD of futures contracts in cotton industry A. Cotton yarn futures B. Futures contract of downstream commodities（Cottonseed, cotton oil, cotton lint） 2. Innovation in trading and delivery A. non-stop trading B. Inspection-free delivery 3. Reinitiating the campaign of serving the cotton industry Thank you! Ji Guangpo 0371 13703846261