本文通过对北京市下岗工人的下岗期间以及再就业-中国研究服务中心.docVIP

北京市下岗职工的再就业分析 日本富山大学经济学部 马　骏* 日本富山大学极东地域研究中心 今村弘子 中国人民大学信息学院 赵国庆 经济学（季刊）第3卷 第3期（总第11期） 2004年4月 *通讯地址:日本富山市五福3190 富山大学经济学部, 邮编:930-8555; 电话:+81-76-4456457; E-mail: majun@eco.toyama-u.ac.jp. 内容提要: 本文利用独自收集到的有关北京市下岗职工的样本数据,首先应用Hazard模型分析了影响下岗职工失业持续时间的原因;其次还应用托比模型探讨了影响下岗职工再就业前后收入变化的原因。通过分析我们得出了以下的主要结论:第一,年龄大的下岗职工、尤其是已婚下岗女职工在下岗以后,可能由于其再就业而产生的机会成本大于由于工作带来的收益，而使得她们有意地延长了下岗持续时间。第二，可能因为一些国有企业即使通过职工下岗也并没有摆脱困境,实际上即使成立了再就业服务中心,也没有能力安排下岗职工再就业,同时,由于下岗职工也不愿轻易放弃与国有企业的关系,其结果便是国有企业不仅使得下岗职工的失业持续时间被延长,而且也使一些在国有企业再就业的下岗职工的收入比下岗以前降低了。 关键词： 下岗、再就业、失业持续时间 英文摘要：Abstract Using the data gathered by myself about the unemployed workers in Beijing region, this paper firstly analyses the causes of the unemployed workers continuing to be out of work by Hazard model. Secondly, this paper applies Tobi model to explore the causes of the change of the unemployed workers income before they are re-employed and after that. From above analysis, we draw some major conclusions: First, the aged unemployed workers, especially the married women who lost their jobs, are likely to extend intentionally the lasting time to be out of employment probably because that the opportunity costs of reemployment is larger than the return of it. Second, in fact some State-owned enterprises(SOEs) have no capacity to reemploy the unemployed workers ever though the foundation of the Service Center for Reemployment , probably because of their failure to extricate themselves from the difficult position ever though dismissing workers. Meanwhile, some unemployed workers are not willing to give up the relationship with SOEs, with the result that the SOEs not only lengthen the unemployed workers to be out of work, but also make the income of reemployed in SOEs lower than that of the unemployed workers before they are laid off. 北京市下岗职工的再就业分析 本文通过对北京市下岗工人的下岗期间以及再就业状况的实证分析,试图从微观的角度来探讨中国近几年来出现的特有的失业现象――“下岗”,从而能较准确地把握这一特有的失业现象的特征,为认识和制订解决中国失业问题提供较为准确的基础信息。 本文由以下几个部分构成。首先,利用统计数据从宏观上把握近几年来的失业与下岗的特征。然