PERT – Program Evaluation Review TechniquePERT–程序评价amp审查技术.pptVIP

下载本文档

1
0
约2.74千字
约 19页
2017-03-08 发布于上海
举报
版权申诉

PERT – Program Evaluation Review TechniquePERT–程序评价amp审查技术.ppt

1、原创力文档（book118）网站文档一经付费（服务费），不意味着购买了该文档的版权，仅供个人/单位学习、研究之用，不得用于商业用途，未经授权，严禁复制、发行、汇编、翻译或者网络传播等，侵权必究。。
2、本站所有内容均由合作方或网友上传，本站不对文档的完整性、权威性及其观点立场正确性做任何保证或承诺！文档内容仅供研究参考，付费前请自行鉴别。如您付费，意味着您自己接受本站规则且自行承担风险，本站不退款、不进行额外附加服务；查看《如何避免下载的几个坑》。如果您已付费下载过本站文档，您可以点击这里二次下载。
3、如文档侵犯商业秘密、侵犯著作权、侵犯人身权等，请点击“版权申诉”（推荐），也可以打举报电话：400-050-0827(电话支持时间：9:00-18:30)。
4、该文档为VIP文档，如果想要下载，成为VIP会员后，下载免费。
5、成为VIP后，下载本文档将扣除1次下载权益。下载后，不支持退款、换文档。如有疑问请联系我们。
6、成为VIP后，您将拥有八大权益，权益包括：VIP文档下载权益、阅读免打扰、文档格式转换、高级专利检索、专属身份标志、高级客服、多端互通、版权登记。
7、VIP文档为合作方或网友上传，每下载1次，网站将根据用户上传文档的质量评分、类型等，对文档贡献者给予高额补贴、流量扶持。如果你也想贡献VIP文档。上传文档

PERT–ProgramEvaluationReviewTechniquePERT–程序评价

3/20/2003 CVEN 349 - Maxwell PERT – Program Evaluation Review Technique Module: 03-04 PERT Modified: February 20, 2003 Purpose: Introduce the ideas that: Construction is a variable process. – there are few constants. These variations cause risk in estimating any outcome. And There are ways to deal with that risk. Learning Objectives: Assuming a normal distribution, be able to make statistical inferences about estimated completion times, based on variable task times. PERT – Basic Concept First used by NASA to Flow-Chart and Schedule their projects. Approach is used for projects where the activity durations and costs are largely “guess work” – that is, SWAGs. Works surprising well on large projects because of the math and statistics. Basic Statistical Ideas Mean = X-bar = (Lo + 4*ML + Hi)/6 S.D. = sigma = (Hi – Lo)/6 Lo = Estimate for Minimum Value ML = Estimate for Most Likely Value Hi = Estimate for Maximum Value Use the Delphi Technique or some other systematic process to get estimates for Lo, ML, Hi Central Limit Theorem (CTL) forces Normality Central Limit Theorem Given N samples of size M drawn from the same population of unknown distribution. The Mean of the distribution of the sample means (DSM) is an unbiased estimator of the population mean. The Variance of the DSM is an unbiased estimator of the Variance of the population divided by the sample size M. Standard Deviation = SQRT of the Variance The DSM approaches normal as M approaches infinity. M = 30 is generally OK. The Problem is the “Shape of the Curve” – What Distribution? We assume Normal for ease of use but the “tails are too thin” causing an underestimation of extreme cases. A Triangular is easier to use but the “tails are too fat” causing over-estimation of extreme cases. A gamma distribution appears a best fit to most unsymmetrical cases. 4. Find Expected Duration 5. Make Statistical Inferences … … The application to construction should be obvious. Class Exercise Stay in your seat. Independent