Practical Statistics for Particle Physicists SLAC粒子物理学家SLAC的实际统计数据.pptVIP

Practical Statistics for Physicists SLUO Lectures February 2007 Topics 1) Introduction Learning to love the Error Matrix 2) Do’s and Dont’s with Likelihoods 3) χ2 and Goodness of Fit 4) Discovery and p-values Books Statistics for Nuclear and Particle Physicists Cambridge University Press, 1986 Available from CUP Errata in these lectures Other Books Difference between averaging and adding Isolated island with conservative inhabitants How many married people ? Number of married men = 100 ± 5 K Number of married women = 80 ± 30 K Total = 180 ± 30 K Weighted average = 99 ± 5 K CONTRAST Total = 198 ± 10 K GENERAL POINT: Adding (uncontroversial) theoretical input can improve precision of answer Compare “kinematic fitting” Relation between Poisson and Binomial Learning to love the Error Matrix Introduction via 2-D Gaussian Understanding covariance Using the error matrix Combining correlated measurements Estimating the error matrix Conclusion Error matrix formalism makes life easy when correlations are relevant Next time: Likelihoods What it is How it works: Resonance Error estimates Detailed example: Lifetime Several Parameters Extended maximum L Do’s and Dont’s with L Small error Example: Lecture 3 xbest outside x1 ? x2 ybest outside y1 ? y2 * Louis Lyons Oxford l.lyons@physics.ox.ac.uk CDF Statistics Committee BaBar Statistics Working Group Other particles Protons Cosmic rays Backwards Forwards Decaying nuclei Remain ill Cured Patients Female Male People N people in lecture, m males and f females (N = m + f ) Assume these are representative of basic rates: ν people νp males ν(1-p) females Probability of observing N people = PPoisson = e–ν ν N /N! Prob of given male/female division = PBinom = pm (1-p)f Prob of N people, m male and f female = PPoi