Release of Hurricane Guidance Products nws飓风指导产品发布新闻.noaa.gov.pptVIP

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Release of Hurricane Guidance Products nws飓风指导产品发布新闻.noaa.gov.ppt

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Release of Hurricane Guidance Products nws飓风指导产品发布新闻.noaa.gov

* * * * * * * * * * John P. Cangialosi and James L. Franklin Hurricane Specialist Unit National Hurricane Center NOAA Hurricane Conference 29 November 2011 * Verification Rules Verification rules unchanged for 2011. Results presented here are preliminary. System must be a tropical or subtropical cyclone at both forecast initial time and verification time. All verifications include depression stage (including GPRA goals). Special advisories ignored (original advisory is verified. Skill baselines are recomputed after the season from operational compute data. Decay-SHIFOR5 is the intensity skill benchmark. 2011 Atlantic Verification Values in green exceed all-time records. 48 h error GPRA targets Track: 87 n mi (met) Intensity: 13 kt (missed) So what else is new? VT NT TRACK INT (h) (n mi) (kt) ============================ 000 392 9.7 1.7 012 354 29.3 5.8 024 311 45.7 9.3 036 273 61.2 11.6 048 237 74.2 13.7 072 187 110.6 16.5 096 151 169.5 17.0 120 127 253.1 18.1 Atlantic Track Errors vs. 5-yr Mean Official forecasts were better than the 5-year mean, though the season’s storms were “easier” than normal. 2011 Track Guidance Official forecast skill very close to consensus aids (even a little better) EMXI and GFSI best models overall. GFS ensemble mean not as good as deterministic GFS. Continued poor performance of GFNI and NGPI. Bad year for EGRI. HWRF and GHMI middle of the pack. BAMM beat both regional models at 96 and 120 h. Atlantic Track Errors by Storm 50.6 89.5 133.2 174.2 214.8 Bret, Don, Irene, Katia, Lee, Rina, Sean successes Struggled with Maria, Ophelia Ophelia’s Reformation 120 h forecast Verifying position Atlantic Track Biases VT % of total error 24 h 20% 48 h 32% 72 h 34% 96 h 31% 120 h 34% 24 h 48 h 72 h 96 h 120 h North South East West Atlantic Intensity Errors vs. 5-yr Mean Official forecast errors