Reliability Analysis for Dams and Levees水坝和堤防的可靠性分析.pptVIP

Reliability Analysis for Dams and Levees Thomas F. Wolff, Ph.D., P.E. Michigan State University Grand Rapids Branch ASCE September 2002 Hodges Village Dam Walter F. George Dam Herbert Hoover Dike Some Background Corps of Engineers moving to probabilistic benefit-cost analysis for water resource investment decisions (pushed from above) Geotechnical engineers must quantify relative reliability of embankments and other geotechnical features Initial implementation must build on existing programs and methodology and be practical within resource constraints Some Practical Problems Given possibility of an earthquake and a high pool, what is the chance of a catastrophic breach ? (Wappapello Dam, St. Louis District, 1985) Given navigation structures of differing condition, how can they be ranked for investment purposes ? (OCE, 1991+ ) What is the annualized probability of unsatisfactory performance for components of Corps’ structures ? (1992 - 1997) Some More Practical Problems For a levee or dam, how does Pr(f) change with water height ? (Levee guidance and Hodges Village Dam) How to characterize the annual probability of failure for segments of very long embankments ? (Herbert Hoover Dike) How to characterize the annual risk of adverse seepage in jointed limestone ? (Walter F. George Dam) General Approaches: Event Tree Probabilities for the Event Tree f (Uncertainty in parameter values) Monte Carlo method FOSM methods point estimate Taylor’s Series Mean Value Hasofer-Lind Frequency Basis Exponential, Weibull, or other lifetime distribution Judgmental Values Expert elicitation Pr(f) = Function of Parameter Uncertainty Identify performance function and limit state, typically ln(FS) = 0 Identify random variables, X i Characterize random variables, E[X], s x, r Determine E[FS], sFS Determine Reliability Index, b Assume Distribution and calculate Pr(f) = f(b) The Probability of Failure The Reliability Index, b Taylor’s series, mean-value FOSM approach Slope S