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United States Institute of Peace Virginia State University Frozen and Forgotten Conflicts in the Post-Soviet States: Genesis, Political Economy and Prospects for Solution Ceslav Ciobanu, PhD Richmond, 2008 Table of Contents Introduction ……………………………………………………………………….…..3 PART ONE: CONFLICTS IN THE POST-SOVIET SPACE: GENESIS AND EVOLUTION ……………………………………………………………… 9 1. RECOVERY OF NATIONAL IDENTITY AND FORGOTTEN CONFLICTS ………………………………………………………………………………11 2. HISTORICAL MEMORY: MYTHS AND REALITY …………………………21 3 HISTORICAL, CULTURAL, AND LANGUAGE “GENERATORS” OF CONFLICTS …………………………………………………………………………31 4. POLITICAL, ECONOMIC, TERRITORIAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL ROOTS OF CONFLICTS …………………………………………………………………49 PART TWO: POLITICAL ECONOMY OF THE POST-SOVIET REGIONAL CONFLICTS ………………………………………………………………………69 1. POLITICAL ECONOMY OF THE “TRANSNISTRIAN MOLDAVIAN REPUBLIC” ………………………………………………………………………….73 2. THE “NAGORNO KARABAKH REPUBLIC”: “NO WINNERS AND NO DEFEATED?” ………………………………………………………………... 106 3. ABKHAZIA, SOUTH OSSETIA, AJARIA: CONFLICTS OF GEORGIA’S “ROSE REVOLUTION” ………………………………………………………… 120 PART THREE: NATO/EU ENLARGEMENT AND “FROZEN AND FORGOTTEN” CONFLICTS IN THE SOVIET SUCCESSOR STATES ……………………137 1. “FROZEN AND FORGOTTEN”: RUSSIAN VS. EU/NATO APPROACH ….143 2. THE CONFLICT RESOLUTION BENEFITS OF A NATO/EU PARTNERSHIP …………………………………………………………………………………..152 3. PROSPECTS OF “FROZEN CONFLICTS”: CHALLENGES FOR THE U.S. AND RUSSIA …………………………………………………………………………..161 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS …………………………………..173 POST SCRIPTUM …………………………………………………………………..176 APPENDIX/MAPS …………………………………………………………………..178 Introduction An old Moldovan proverb says: “Keep me Lord off my friends, and I’ll protect myself from my enemies…” The latest evolutions in the separatist Moldova’s region -Transnistria, confirmed once again this wisdom. Until recently, the political, eco