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Clustering of contacts relevant to the spread of infectious disease.pdf

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Clustering of contacts relevant to the spread of infectious disease.pdf

Epidemics 17 (2016) 1–9 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Epidemics journal homepage: /locate/epidemics Research Paper Clustering of contacts relevant to the spread of infectious disease Xiong Xiao a,d, Albert Jan van Hoek a, Michael G. Kenward a, Alessia Melegaro b, Mark Jit a,c,? a Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London WC1E 7HT, United Kingdom b DONDENA Centre for Research on Social Dynamics Public Policy, Università Bocconi, Via Guglielmo R?ntgen n. 1, 20136 Milan, Italy c Modelling and Economics Unit, Public Health England, 61 Colindale Avenue, London NW9 5EQ, United Kingdom d Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, West China School of Public Health, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China article info Article history: Received 18 January 2016 Received in revised form 4 August 2016 Accepted 23 August 2016 Available online 26 August 2016 Keywords: Clustering Contacts Infectious diseases Mathematical modelling Varicella-zoster virus abstract Objective: Infectious disease spread depends on contact rates between infectious and susceptible individuals. Transmission models are commonly informed using empirically collected contact data, but the relevance of different contact types to transmission is still not well understood. Some studies select contacts based on a single characteristic such as proximity (physical/non-physical), location, duration or frequency. This study aimed to explore whether clusters of contacts similar to each other across multiple characteristics could better explain disease transmission. Methods: Individual contact data from the POLYMOD survey in Poland, Great Britain, Belgium, Finland and Italy were grouped into clusters by the k medoids clustering algorithm with a Manhattan distance metric to stratify contacts using all four characteristics. Contact clusters were then used to ?t a transmission model to sero-epidemiological data for varicella-zoster virus