On the Calculation of the Prevalence of Transsexualism.pptVIP

On the Calculation of the Prevalence of Transsexualism Prof. Femke Olyslager1, PhD, and Prof. em. Lynn Conway2 1 Department of Information Technology, Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium 2 Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA Introduction Introductory remark: Only male-to-female transsexualism is discussed here! The key-question: “What are the chances that my child is transsexual?” = “The prevalence of transsexualism.” Observation: Literature(1): P = 1 in 11,900 In discrepancy with simple sanity-checks!(2) Actions: Analyse the old reports on prevalence Develop a mathematical framework Derive commensurable prevalence numbers (1) A. Bakker et al., “The prevalence of transsexualism in the Netherlands,” Acta Psych. Scand., 1993. (2) L. Conway, “How frequently does transsexualism occur?,” LynnC, 2001. Deriving prevalence How was prevalence derived? Problem A: E.g. the Netherlands(1,2): “Prevalence increases over time, as more patients treated.” Problem B: Who is counted? Those satisfying TS definition, those on hormone therapy, those having SRS, ... ? “Leads to incommensurable numbers.” (1) A. Bakker et al., “The prevalence of transsexualism in the Netherlands,” Acta Psych. Scand., 1993. (2) P.L.E. Eklund et al., “Prevalence of transsexualism in the Netherlands,” Brit. J. Psych., 1988. Deriving prevalence Types of prevalence: P(TS) = the prevalence of transsexualism P(SH) = the prevalence of transsexual people who have sought help P(HT) = the prevalence of those on hormone therapy P(ST) = the prevalence of those who have socially transitioned P(SRS) = the prevalence of those who have undergone SRS Inequalities (in general): P(TS) P(SH) P(HT) P(ST) P(SRS) or: P(TS) P(SH) P(ST) P(HT) P(SRS) Allows e.g. to derive P(HT) from P(SRS) if P(SRS)/P(HT) is known Provides lower bounds for P(TS) Deriving prevalence Suppose transsex