CH4PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS-商务统计,英文版幻灯片.pptVIP

Business StatisticsBEO 1106;PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS;The Relative Frequency Distribution of a discrete variable is an example of a Discrete Probability Distribution;P(X);Ex 1: Toss a coin three times. P(Head) = p = 0.5 and n = 3 The possible outcomes are: HHH, HHT, HTH, THH, HTT, THT, TTH and TTT.;Ex 2: Consider a game of chance in which a die is rolled 10 times and let X denote the number of ‘6’ results.;Ex 3: (Selvanathan p.211, ex.5.54 (2000 edition – p.173, ex. 5.32)) A sign on the petrol pumps of a chain of petrol stations encourages customers to have their oil checked, claiming that one out of every four cars should have its oil topped up.;The Poisson Distribution - another discrete probability distribution ;Ex 4: (Selvanathan p.216, ex.5.66 (2000 edition – p.177, ex. 5.44) The numbers of accidents that occur on an assembly line have a Poisson distribution, with an average of three accidents per week. ;Ex 5: (Selvanathan p.216, ex.5.102 (2000 edition – p.199, ex. 5.76)) The scheduling manager for an electricity supply company knows that there are an average of 12 emergency calls regarding power failures per month.;PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION OF A CONTINUOUS RANDOM VARIABLE;The Plot of a Continuous Probability Distribution ;Probability Density Function;Ex 6: Say X : Assembly time and n =1000.;Finally, when the class intervals are quite narrow, the relative frequency histogram can be replaced with a smooth curve. ;NORMAL DISTRIBUTION; The normal distribution has two parameters: μ (mean) and σ (standard deviation); All normal random variables (say X with μ and σ parameters) can be transformed to the standard normal variable (denoted as Z) by the following formula:;X;Ex 8: The weekly demand at a supermarket chain for 375 gram jars of KGB freeze dried instant coffee is approximately normal with mean 77.8 cases and standard deviation 12.9 cases.;Demand will be more than 100 cases in a particular week?; The Normal approximation to the Binomial Distrib