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StockMarketPerspectiveStocksvs.Bondsvs.Inflation
Stock Market Perspective: Stocks vs. Bonds vs. Inflation
Standard investing “wisdom” says that most Enough of the ruminations; let’s take a look at
portfolios should have a substantial portion in what actual performance data show. The first
stocks because that is the best way to earn a issue is what is meant by the long term. I’ll use
“real” return, one that is more than inflation. 20 years although there is nothing special about
Also, some part of the portfolio should be in that number. To some extent, it is a matter of
bonds to reduce the convenience since the
risk from owning Are stocks or bonds the better long-term Investors FastTrack
stocks and to provide a holding? Owning them at the right times total return mutual
stream of income is more important than the answer. fund data that I
greater than what frequently use starts in
stocks can produce when one needs to spend, late 1988. A useful feature of the 1989-2008
rather than reinvest, the income. The overly twenty-year period is that it is almost evenly
simplistic (since it ignores investors’ financial split on an annual basis between the last secular
positions and eventual needs) rule one often bull market (1989-99, 11 years) and the current
sees or hears is that the stock percentage should secular bear (2000-08, 9 years).
be one’s age subtracted from 100, or sometimes
110 is given. Vanguard1 has some funds that can be used in
the analysis and have been in existence for the
The assumption behind that rule and the entire period. I will look at three of them. One
general advice is that over the “long term” is the original index fund, the Index 500 Fund,
stocks will outperform bonds and inflation by a whose ticker symbol is VFINX. That fund
significant margin. Recently, I have seen some closely replicates the performance of
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