2014 A forecasting method of forest pests based on the rough set and PSO-BP neural network.pdf

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2014 A forecasting method of forest pests based on the rough set and PSO-BP neural network.pdf

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2014 A forecasting method of forest pests based on the rough set and PSO-BP neural network

ORIGINAL ARTICLE A forecasting method of forest pests based on the rough set and PSO-BP neural network Tiecheng Bai ? Hongbing Meng ? Jianghe Yao Received: 19 March 2013 / Accepted: 4 July 2014 / Published online: 22 July 2014 The Natural Computing Applications Forum 2014 Abstract In order to improve the forecasting accuracy of the occurrence period of insect pests, this paper proposes a kind of forecasting method based on the combination of rough set theory and improved PSO-BP neural network. It takes insect pests of Euphrates poplar forests as the object of study. First, an attribute reduction algorithm of rough set is used to eliminate redundancy attributes. Input factors of the forecasting model of insect pests (temperature, humidity and rainfall) can be reduced from sixteen to eight. Then, particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm is improved using the inertia weight, and weights and thresholds of BP neural network are optimized using the improved PSO algorithm. Finally, the forecasting model of insect pests is established using rough set and an improved PSO-BP network. The test results show that rough set theory can effectively reduce the feature dimension and the improved PSO algorithm can reduce the iteration times, with an average accuracy of 94.8 %. This method can provide the technical support for the prevention and control of the insect pests of the Euphrates poplar forests. Keywords Insect pests Forecasting method Rough set theory Particle swarm optimization BP neural network 1 Introduction The Euphrates poplar forests of the Tarim River basin are the main body of maintaining the ecological system, but many Euphrates poplar die of insect pests every spring. Predicting the occurrence period of forest pests is the pre- condition of prevention and control [1]. So the timely and reliable forecasting method is very important to the pre- vention and accurate control of the Euphrates poplar forests. The forecasting methods of the occurrence period