2017美赛MCM A题M奖获奖论文_.docx

For office use onlyT1________________T2________________T3________________T4________________Team Control Number66666?Problem ChosenAFor office use onlyF1________________F2________________F3________________F4________________2017Mathematical Contest in Modeling (MCM/ICM) Summary SheetThe Kariba Dam on the Zambezi River is one of the larger dams in Africa. Its construction was controversial, and a 2015 report by the Institute of Risk Management of South Africa included a warning that the dam is in dire need of maintenance. A number of options are available to the Zambezi River Authority (ZRA) that might address the situation.It is assumed that the design parameters, site selection and construction of the dam (dam group) after repair, reconstruction and reconstruction are in accordance with the requirements of water conservancy and hydropower projects. The number and location of the dam groups are in line with the requirements of water conservancy and hydropower projects. Therefore, the research problems are: a) Comparing the comprehensive benefits of the dams after restoration, reconstruction and reconstruction, establishing the mathematical model, and expounding the costs and benefits of each case; b) Reconstructing the dams (rebuilding the existing dams 10-20 A little dam), in the drought, heavy rain, moderate rain, light rain, when the water storage, flood discharge to ensure the probability of dam break the smallest, that is, dam group risk decision optimization.For the first problem, this paper chooses the optimal cost and benefit plan for Kaliba Dam restoration work by establishing the economic benefit model, the economic loss model, the comprehensive benefit model, the absolute return model after restoration and the investment payback period model.The cost-effectiveness of the three programs was evaluated in detail according to the results of the mathematical model. Option1, the restoration of the dam can extend the useful life of 11 years. While the one-time cos