青岛邮船产业的客源规模及经济效益预测.pdfVIP

第 31 卷第 3 期 上海海事大学学报 Vol. 31 No.3 2010 年 9 月 Journal of Shanghai Maritime University Sept. 2010 文章编号 :1672 - 9498(2010)03- ∞78-08 青岛邮船产业的客源规模及经济效益预测 李建丽 a ，真虹 b ，程爵浩 b ，徐凯 b (上海海事大学 a. 科学研究院; b. 上海国际航运研究中心，上海 201306) 摘 要:为合理估算青岛邮船产业经济效应，运用自回归积分移动平均 (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average , ARIMA) 法与经验预测相结合的方法，对青岛 2010-2020 年重要时间节点的客源 规模进行预测卅 1] 用预测数据分析青岛邮船产业经济效益.得出结论 :2010-2020 年青岛邮船产业 的重点应放在国际邮船上;青岛应联合国际邮船公司，共同寻求多港挂靠政策的支持，吸引目前 以上海和天津作为母港的国际邮船挂靠. 关键词:邮船产业;自回归积分移动平均法;经济效益 中图分类号: U674. 11; U695. 14 文献标志码 :A Passenger quantity and economic effect prediction for cruise industry of Qingdao U Jianli 8 , ZHEN Hongb , CHENG Juehaob , XU Kai b ( a. Academy of Scíence Technology; b. Shanghaí lnternational Shipping Instítute , Shanghai Maritime Univ. , Shanghai 201306 , China) Abstract: To estimate economic effect for cruise industry of Qingdao reasonahly , the Autoregressive Inte? grated Moving Average (ARIMA) and the empirical prediction is adopted to predict the passenger quantity of Qingdao at some important time points in 2010-2020, and then the prediction result is used ωanalyze the economic effect of Qingdao s cruise industry. The results show that Qingdao s cruise in? dustry should put emphasis on international cruise indurstry in 2010-2020; Qingdao should find alli? ances with international cruise lines to seek the support of multiport calling policy jointly , and attract the