Hong Kong HIV - AIDS metabolic GM (1,1) model and prediction analysis.docVIP

 PAGE \* MERGEFORMAT 16 Hong Kong HIV / AIDS metabolic GM (1,1) model and prediction analysis Author: Shun-Yun Ho Sui-chi, Europe had 100 Yue Deng Zhuo Shen Su-Fang Liu 【Abstract】 Objective: To study the Hong Kong HIV / AIDS epidemic and its trends. Methods: Structure Prediction Model Y (t) = (x1-b / a) ea tb / a, compare metabolic GM (1,1) model and the general GM (1,1) model and the different dimensions GM (1,1) model to study Hong Kong HIV / AIDS the number of predictions. Results: The metabolic GM (1,1) of the error is less than the corresponding conventional GM (1,1), a short sequence of the forecast error is typically less than a long sequence of HIV in Hong Kong the number of five-dimensional GM (1,1) model accuracy test 4 indicators are one. Conclusion: The metabolic GM (1,1) model is an ideal model for dealing with such data, five-dimensional M (1,1) model for Hong Kong HIV / AIDS projections have certain advantages. Keywords: HIV; metabolic GM (1,1) model; Forecast Chinese Ministry of Health, UNAIDS, World Health Organization updated assessment of the results showed that: As of the end of 2005, China’s current HIV infection and the patient is about 65 million people (54 ~ 76 million) (source: China’s AIDS Network), AIDS epidemic in China still on an upward trend. HIV / AIDS is estimated that forecast is to master status and trends of the epidemic, policy development, project design and evaluation, as well as the basis for the allocation of resources. Since 1997, in order to understand the HIV / AIDS epidemic and its impact on the extent and speed of the impact of the local community, the United Nations AIDS Program (UNAIDS) and World Health Organization (WHO) every six months on the national HIV / AIDS to assess the prevalence of and, based on the estimation results, decided against HIV / AIDS International how resources are allocated to various countries [1]. The component method, the reverse calculation meth