Ningxia AIDS epidemic risk population size estimates and projections.doc

 PAGE \* MERGEFORMAT 8 Ningxia AIDS epidemic risk population size estimates and projections Of: ENERGY SAVING shore Xu Xuefeng Jiang Wang Xiuzhen [Abstract] Ningxia AIDS estimated the size of various types of high-risk groups to predict AIDS virus (HIV) infected persons, provide the basis for AIDS prevention and control, based on reported AIDS cases in Ningxia, sentinel surveillance, special investigations such as AIDS, the data obtained reference to the relevant information, the use of Workbook estimation, estimated the base region at high risk of AIDS municipalities to predict the AIDS epidemic. The results, estimates of existing HIV high-risk groups in Ningxia 101,192 ~ 230,233 people, predicted Ningxia existing 631 people infected with HIV. Ningxia now HIV prevalence is still low state, but the situation is not optimistic fashion, the epidemic is growing rapidly. [Key Words] high risk of HIV infection AIDS estimates AIDS high-risk groups susceptible to the special nature of the invisibility of infected people, social discrimination and the health of infected people in general have a weak sense, resulting in lower rates of HIV antibody testing, making the case report can not reflect the situation of the AIDS epidemic, and therefore the number of reported cases quite different and the actual number of areas infected with the AIDS epidemic estimated to be about the actual important means of infection. the work is gathering for the low prevalence and the AIDS epidemic is estimated that in endemic areas [1]. In order to estimate the scale of various types of high-risk groups to predict HIV infection The number, provide the basis for AIDS prevention in 2007, of the use of existing information, the use of Workbook method, the AIDS epidemic in Ningxia high-risk groups were estimated. 1 Materials and Methods 1.1 Source of Ningxia 1994-2007 calendar year the number of case reports and case-related data in epidemiological investigations of cases, 200