基于成本收益分析的油气管道风险控制决策过程.pdfVIP

第 22 卷第 4 期 中国安全科学学报 Vo1. 22No.4 2 0 1 2 年 4 月 China Safety Science Journal Apr. 20 1 2 基于成本收益分析的油气管道风险控制决策过程 刘旭峰李静刘茂教授 (南开大学城市公共安全研究中心，天津 3锐则71) 学科分类与代码 :62翩 10( 安全管理工程) ct图分类号 :X9Z1 艾献标志码 :A 基金项目:国家自然科学基金重点项目资勘 (7(盼到那13) 。 【摘 要] 为实现对油气管道风险的有效控制，结合油气管道的特点，基于成本收益分析方法改进 风险控制决策过程。首先，确定风险控制目标，对所建议的措施进行初步筛选，并根据行业现状确定 基线场景;之后，量化筛选后的措施的成本与收??，通过计算成本收益率 (CBR) 或规避事故隐含成 本(ICAF) 来确定相应措施的合理性;最后，依据上述分析制定风险控制决策。结果表明:不同措施 的 CBR 或 ICAF 值不同， CBR 或 ICAF 值较低的措施应被优先实施;而当 CBR 或 ICAF 值超过标准 值时，相应措施是不合理的，应不予以实施。 [关键词] 成本收益分析: 油气管道; 风险控制; 风险决策; 事故隐含成本(ICAF) ; 合理可接受 Risk Control Decision-making Process of Oil and Gas Pipelines Based on Cost-Benefit Analysis LIU Xu-feng LI Jing LIU Mao (Center for Urban Puhlic Safety R，甸甸rch ， Nankai University , Tianjin 3α)()71 ， China) A恼tract: In order to control the risk from oil and gas pipelines etIectively , decision-making process of risk control was improved , based on cost-benefit analysis. First , targets of risk control were set , initial screening of proposed risk control options (RCOs) wωcarried out , and baseline scenarios were identified; Second , costs and benefits arising from RCOs were quantified , and by calculating Cost-Benefit Ratio( CBR) or ICAF ，咄咄er RCOs were reasonably practicable can be proved; Finally , risk control decisions were made according to analysis above. The r哩sults show that CBR or ICAF vary with ditIerent RCOs; RCOs with lower CBR or ICAF should be c缸Tìed out p陀ferentially; RCOs wi由