基于贝叶斯算法的220kV变压器故障检修成本模型分析.pdfVIP

第 28 卷第 4 期 电力科学与技术学报 Vol. 28 No.4 2013 年 12 月 JOURNAL OF EIECTRIC POWER SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY Dec.2013 基于贝叶斯算法的 220 kV 变压器 故障检修成本模型分析 蔡嘉 1 ， 2 ，江修波 1 (1.福州大学电气工程与自动化学院，福建福州 350116; 2. 福建省电力有限公司，福建福州 350000) 摘 要:针对电力网络中 220 kV 变压器运行现状和其所处的故障检修阶段，根据全寿命周期成本管理理念，基于 贝叶斯计量经济学理论和计量经济学软件 WinBUGS. 建立了 220 kV 变压器的失效故障维修成本优化模型.该模 型充分考虑到电气设备经济成本活动的不确定性和特殊性，能够较为合理地反映出变压器寿命周期内的检修故障 阶段所对应的费用.并结合福建某变电站 220 kV 变压器的运行情况，验证了该模型的可行性与适用性. 关 键 词:全寿命周期成本 E 变压器;贝叶斯计量经济学;故障检修成本 ;WinBUGS 申固分类号 :TM761 文献标识码 :A 文章编号 :1673-9140(2013)04-0015-04 Bayesian econometrics method based maintenance cost model for 220 kV transformers 2 l CAI Jia 1. ? ]lANG Xiu-bo (1. College of Electrical Engineering and Automation. Fuzhou University. Fuzhou 350108. China; 2. Fujian Electric Power Company Limited. Fuzhou 350000. China) Abstract: According to the operation situation and the corrective maintenance process of 220 k V transformers. a new failure and break down caused maintenance model was established based on the theory of Bayesian econometrics and the WinBUGS software. which can realize life cycle cost management of transformers. With full consideration of the uncertainty and the particularity of e? conomic activities. the model could reflect the different process costs of 220 kV transformers in the maintenance period reasonably. This model has been applied in a 2