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Complexity versus simplicity an example of groundwater model ranking with the Akaike Information Criterion.doc

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Complexity versus simplicity an example of groundwater model ranking with the Akaike Information Criterion

Hydrol.EarthSyst.Sci.Discuss.,9,9687–9714,2012 /9/9687/2012/ doi:10.5194/hessd-9-9687-2012 Hydrology and EarthSystem Sciences HESSD ?Author(s)2012.CCAttribution3.0License. Discussions 9,9687–9714,2012 Thisdiscussionpaperis/hasbeenunderreviewforthejournalHydrologyandEarthSystem Sciences(HESS).Pleaserefertothecorresponding?nalpaperinHESSifavailable. Groundwatermodel rankingwiththe AkaikeInformation Criterion Complexityversussimplicity:anexample ofgroundwatermodelrankingwiththe AkaikeInformationCriterion I.Engelhardtetal. TitlePage Abstract Conclusions Tables Introduction References Figures I.Engelhardt ,J.G.DeAguinaga ,H.Mikat ,C.Schu¨th ,O.Lenz ,andR.Liedl4 1 2 3 1 1 1TechnischeUniversita¨tDarmstadt,InstituteofAppliedGeosciences, 64287Darmstadt,Germany 2Bauhaus-Universita¨tWeimar,ResearchTrainingGroup1462,99423Weimar,Germany 3HessenwasserGmbHCo.KG,Gescha¨ftsbereichWasserwirtschaft, 64521Gro?-Gerau,Germany 4TechnischeUniversita¨tDresden,InstituteforGroundwaterManagement, 01062Dresden,Germany J J I I Back Close Received:8July2012–Accepted:13August2012–Published:21August2012 Correspondenceto:I.Engelhardt(engelhardt@geo.tu-darmstadt.de) FullScreen/Esc PublishedbyCopernicusPublicationsonbehalfoftheEuropeanGeosciencesUnion. Printer-friendlyVersion InteractiveDiscussion 9687 Abstract HESSD Agroundwatermodelcharacterizedbyalackof?elddatatoestimatehydraulicmodel parametersandboundaryconditionscombinedwithmanypiezometricheadobserva- tionswasinvestigatedconcerningmodeluncertainty.Di?erentconceptualmodelswith astepwiseincreasefrom0to30adjustableparameterswerecalibratedusingPEST. Residuals, sensitivities, the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), and the likelihood of each model were computed. As expected, residuals and standard errors decreased withanincreasingamountofadjustablemodelparameters.However,themodelwith only 15 adjusted parameters was evaluated by AIC as the best option with a likeli- 10 hood of 98%, while the uncalibrated model obtained the worst AIC value.