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Daily reservoir inflow forecasting combining QPF into ANNs model.doc

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Daily reservoir inflow forecasting combining QPF into ANNs model

Hydrol.EarthSyst.Sci.Discuss.,6,121–150,2009 /6/121/2009/ ?Author(s)2009.Thisworkisdistributedunder theCreativeCommonsAttribution3.0License. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences HESSD 6,121–150,2009 Discussions Reservoirin?ow forecasting combiningQPFinto ANNs PaperspublishedinHydrologyandEarthSystemSciencesDiscussionsareunder open-accessreviewforthejournalHydrologyandEarthSystemSciences JunZhangetal. TitlePage Dailyreservoirin?owforecasting combiningQPFintoANNsmodel Abstract Conclusions Tables Introduction References Figures JunZhang,Chun-tianCheng,Sheng-liLiao,Xin-yuWu,andJian-jianShen Dept.ofCivilHydraulicEngineering,DalianUniv.ofTechnology,Dalian116024,China J J I I Received:28August2008–Accepted:5November2008–Published:6January2009 Correspondenceto:Chun-tianCheng(ctcheng@) Back Close PublishedbyCopernicusPublicationsonbehalfoftheEuropeanGeosciencesUnion. FullScreen/Esc Printer-friendlyVersion InteractiveDiscussion 121 Abstract HESSD Daily reservoir in?ow predictionswith lead-times of several days are essentialto the operationalplanningandschedulingofhydroelectricpowersystem. Thedemandfor quantitativeprecipitationforecasting(QPF)isincreasinginhydropoweroperationwith thedramaticadvancesinthenumericalweatherprediction(NWP)models.Thispaper presentsasimpleandane?ectivealgorithmfordailyreservoirin?owpredictionswhich solicitstheobservedprecipitation,forecastedprecipitationfromQPFaspredictorsand discharges in following 1 to 6 days as predicted targets for multilayer perceptron ar- ti?cial neural networks (MLP-ANNs) modeling. An improved error back-propagation 10 algorithm with self-adaptive learning rate and self-adaptive momentum coe?cient is usedtomakethesupervisedtrainingproceduremoree?cientinbothtimesavingand searchoptimization.Severalcommonlyusederrormeasuresareemployedtoevaluate theperformanceoftheproposedmodelandtheresults,comparedwiththatofARIMA model, show that the proposed model is capable of obtaining satisfactory forecast- 15 ingnotonlyingoodnessof