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Drought risk assessments of water resources systems under climate change a case study in Southern Taiwan.doc

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Drought risk assessments of water resources systems under climate change a case study in Southern Taiwan

Hydrol.EarthSyst.Sci.Discuss.,9,12395–12433,2012 /9/12395/2012/ doi:10.5194/hessd-9-12395-2012 Hydrology and EarthSystem Sciences HESSD ?Author(s)2012.CCAttribution3.0License. Discussions 9,12395–12433,2012 Thisdiscussionpaperis/hasbeenunderreviewforthejournalHydrologyandEarthSystem Sciences(HESS).Pleaserefertothecorresponding?nalpaperinHESSifavailable. Droughtrisk assessmentofwater resourcessystems T.C.Yangetal. Droughtriskassessmentsofwater resourcessystemsunderclimatechange: acasestudyinSouthernTaiwan T.C.Yang,C.Chen,C.M.Kuo,H.W.Tseng,andP.S.Yu TitlePage Abstract Conclusions Tables Introduction References Figures DepartmentofHydraulicandOceanEngineering,NationalChengKungUniversity,No.1, UniversityRd.,Tainan701,Taiwan J J I I Received:1October2012–Accepted:25October2012–Published:5November2012 Correspondenceto:P.S.Yu(yups@.tw) Back Close PublishedbyCopernicusPublicationsonbehalfoftheEuropeanGeosciencesUnion. FullScreen/Esc Printer-friendlyVersion InteractiveDiscussion 12395 Abstract HESSD Thisstudyaimsatassessingtheimpactofclimatechangeondroughtriskinawater resourcessysteminSouthernTaiwanbyintegratingtheweathergenerator,hydrolog- icalmodelandsimulationmodelofreservoiroperation.Threecompositeindiceswith multi-aspectmeasurementsofreservoirperformance(i.e.reliability,resilienceandvul- nerability)werecomparedbytheirmonotonicbehaviorsto?ndasuitableoneforthe studyarea.Thesuitableperformanceindexwasthenvalidatedbythehistoricaldrought eventsandproventohavethecapabilityofbeingadroughtriskindexinthestudyarea. ThedownscalingresultsunderA1Bemissionscenariofromsevengeneralcirculation 9,12395–12433,2012 Droughtrisk assessmentofwater resourcessystems 5 T.C.Yangetal. 10 modelswereusedinthiswork.Theprojectedresultsshowthattheaveragemonthly meanin?owsduringthedryseasontendtodecreasefromthebaselineperiod(1980– 1999)tothefutureperiod(2020–2039);theaveragemonthlymeanin?owsduringthe wet season may increase/decrease in the future. Based on the drought risk index, the analysis res