Effects of seasonality on the distribution of hydrological extremes.docVIP

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Effects of seasonality on the distribution of hydrological extremes.doc

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Effects of seasonality on the distribution of hydrological extremes

Hydrol.EarthSyst.Sci.Discuss.,8,4789–4811,2011 /8/4789/2011/ doi:10.5194/hessd-8-4789-2011 Hydrology and Earth System Sciences HESSD 8,4789–4811,2011 Discussions ?Author(s)2011.CCAttribution3.0License. E?ectsofseasonality onthedistributions ofhydrological extremes Thisdiscussionpaperis/hasbeenunderreviewforthejournalHydrologyandEarth SystemSciences(HESS).Pleaserefertothecorresponding?nalpaperinHESS ifavailable. P.Allamanoetal. E?ectsofseasonalityonthedistribution TitlePage ofhydrologicalextremes Abstract Conclusions Tables Introduction References Figures P.Allamano,F.Laio,andP.Claps PolitecnicodiTorino,CorsoDucadegliAbruzzi24,10123Torino,Italy J J I I Received:10May2011–Accepted:11May2011–Published:13May2011 Correspondenceto:P.Allamano(paola.allamano@polito.it) PublishedbyCopernicusPublicationsonbehalfoftheEuropeanGeosciencesUnion. Back Close FullScreen/Esc Printer-friendlyVersion InteractiveDiscussion 4789 Abstract HESSD Thispaperfocusesontheseasonalityofhydroclimaticextremesandontheproblemof accountingfortheirnon-homogeneouscharacterindeterminingthedesignvalue. To thisaimwedeviseasimplestochasticworldinwhichextremesareproducedbyanon- homogeneous extreme value generation process. The design values are estimated in closed analytical form both in a peak over threshold framework and by using the standard annual maxima approach. In this completely controlled world of generated hydrological extremes, a statistical measure of the error associated to the adoption ofahomogeneousmodelisintroduced. Thesensitivityofthismeasure, assumedin 10 termsofreturnperiodratio,tothetypologyandstrengthofseasonalityisinvestigated. We ?nd that seasonality induces a downward bias in design value estimators. The magnitudeofthebiasmaybelargewhenthepeakoverthresholdapproachisadopted, whilethereturnperioddistortionislimitedwhentheannualmaximaareconsidered. AnapplicationtoaprealpinetoalpinetransitionregionlocatedinNorth-WesternItaly 15 ispresentedtobetterclarifythee?ectsofdisrega