Effects of Simulated Forest Cover Change on Projected Climate Change – a Case Study of Hungary.docVIP

Acta Silv. Lign. Hung., Vol. 7 (2011) 49–62 Effects of Simulated Forest Cover Change on Projected Climate Change – a Case Study of Hungary Borbála GáLOS – Daniela JACOB – Csaba MáTYáSa a* b a Institute of Environment and Earth Sciences, Faculty of Forestry, University of West Hungary, Sopron Climate Service Center, Germany – eine Einrichtung am Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht b Abstract – Climatic effects of forest cover change have been investigated for Hungary applying the regional climate model REMO. For the end of the 21st century (2071–2100) case studies have been analyzed assuming maximal afforestation (forests covering all vegetated area) and complete deforestation (forests replaced by grasslands) of the country. For 2021–2025, the climatic influence of the potential afforestation based on a detailed national survey has been assessed. The simulation results indicate that maximal afforestation may reduce the projected climate change through cooler and moister conditions for the entire summer period. The magnitude of the simulated climate change mitigating effect of the forest cover increase differs among regions. The smallest climatic benefit was calculated in the southwestern region, in the area with the potentially strongest climate change. The strongest effects of maximal afforestation are expected in the northeastern part of the country. Here, half of the projected precipitation decrease could be relieved and the probability of summer droughts could be reduced. The potential afforestation has a very slight feedback on the regional climate compared to the maximal afforestation scenario. climate change / forest cover change / drought probability Kivonat – A klímaváltozás hatáskorlátozásának esélyei erd?telepítéssel Magyarországon. A magyarországi erd?k klímaváltozás-hatáskorlátozó szerepét három felszínborítás-változási forgatók?nyvre számszer?sít