Effects of rating-curve uncertainty on probabilistic flood mapping.docVIP

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Effects of rating-curve uncertainty on probabilistic flood mapping.doc

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Effects of rating-curve uncertainty on probabilistic flood mapping

Hydrol.EarthSyst.Sci.Discuss.,9,9809–9845,2012 /9/9809/2012/ doi:10.5194/hessd-9-9809-2012 Hydrology and EarthSystem Sciences HESSD ?Author(s)2012.CCAttribution3.0License. Discussions 9,9809–9845,2012 Thisdiscussionpaperis/hasbeenunderreviewforthejournalHydrologyandEarthSystem Sciences(HESS).Pleaserefertothecorresponding?nalpaperinHESSifavailable. E?ectsof rating-curve uncertainty A.Domeneghettietal. E?ectsofrating-curveuncertainty onprobabilistic?oodmapping TitlePage Abstract Conclusions Tables Introduction References Figures A.Domeneghetti ,S.Vorogushyn ,A.Castellarin ,B.Merz ,andA.Brath1 1 2 1 2 1DICAM,UniversityofBologna,Italy 2DeutschesGeoForschungsZentrum(GFZ),Section5.4:Hydrology,Potsdam,Germany J J I I Received:25July2012–Accepted:13August2012–Published:29August2012 Correspondenceto:A.Domeneghetti(alessio.domeneghetti@unibo.it) PublishedbyCopernicusPublicationsonbehalfoftheEuropeanGeosciencesUnion. Back Close FullScreen/Esc Printer-friendlyVersion InteractiveDiscussion 9809 Abstract HESSD Comprehensive?oodriskassessmentstudiesshouldquantifytheglobaluncertaintyin ?oodhazardestimation,forinstancebymappinginundationextentstogetherwiththeir con?dence intervals. This appears of particular importance in case of ?ood hazard assessmentsalongdike-protectedreacheswherethepossibilityofoccurrenceofdike failuresmayconsiderablyenhancetheuncertainty.Wepresentamethodologytoderive probabilistic?oodmapsindike-protected?oodproneareas,whereseveralsourcesof uncertaintyaretakenintoaccount.Inparticular,thispaperfocusesona50kmreach ofRiver Po(Italy)and threemajorsources ofuncertaintyin hydraulicmodellingand 9,9809–9845,2012 E?ectsof rating-curve uncertainty 5 A.Domeneghettietal. 10 ?oodmapping:uncertaintiesinthe(i)upstreamand(ii)downstreamboundarycondi- tions,and(iii)uncertaintiesindikefailures.Uncertaintiesinthede?nitionofupstream boundary conditions (i.e. design-hydrographs) are assessed by applying di?erent bi- variate copula families to model the frequency regime