Abrupt Climate Regime Shifts, Their Potential Forcing and Fisheries Impacts英文文献资料.docVIP

Atmospheric and Climate Sciences, 2011, 1, 33-47 doi:10.4236/acs.2011.12004 Published Online April 2011 (http://www.SciRP.org/journal/acs) Abrupt Climate Regime Shifts, Their Potential Forcing and Fisheries Impacts Alfred M. Powell Jr. , Jianjun Xu 1 2* NOAA/NESDIS/Center for Satellite Applications and Research (STAR), Camp Springs, Maryland IMSG at NOAA/NESDIS/Star, Camp Springs, Maryland E-mail: Jianjun.xu@ 1 2 Received February 9, 2011; revised March 14, 2011; accepted March 21, 2011 Abstract The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether a logical chain of events can be established to explain the abrupt climatic regime shift changes in the Pacific that link the atmosphere to the ocean to fisheries impacts. The investigation endeavors to identify synchronous abrupt changes in a series of data sets to establish the feasibility of abrupt of climate change often referred to as regime shifts. The study begins by using biological (fish catch/stock) markers to mathematically identify the dates of abrupt change. The dates are confirmed by a literature search of parameters that also show abrupt changes on the same dates. Using the biological date markers of abrupt change, analyses are performed to demonstrate that the interactions between the atmos- phere, ocean, ecosystems and fisheries are a plausible approach to explaining abrupt climate change and its impacts. Keywords: Climate Regime Shift, Fishery 1. Introduction The purpose of this research is to search for the large-scale forcing by identifying specific changes in the atmosphere, ocean and ecosystems that could offer a physical explanation for the chain of environmental in- teractions that could cascade through the system and affect the fisheries. The data and methodology are de- scribed in the next section and is followed by how the regime shifts were identified. Prior to the detailed analy- sis synopsis, backgroun